On optimal forecasting of the peak of the following 11-year activity cycle and several subsequent cycles on the basis of long-time variations of the solar radius or solar constant
1Abdussamatov, HI 1Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory, Pulkovo, Russia |
Start Page: Solar Physics Russian |
Language: eng |
Abstract: A new method of the optimal forecasting of the peak of the following 11-year activity cycle up to its beginning and several subsequent cycles of the activity is developed. The method is based on the regularity established earlier, namely, long-time cyclical variations of the activity, radius and solar constant, being a result of the same processes, are correlated both on the phase and amplitude. The most probable peak of the solar activity cycle 24 is Wmax = 70±10 units of the sunspot number. In the subsequent activity cycles 25—26 which will be formed during the decay of the present centenary solar activity cycle the tendency for the drop of the peak of the activity cycle up to Wmax = 50±15 and 35±20 units of the sunspot number, respectively, will be kept. 11-year activity cycle,solar radius |
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