A prediction of amplitude for solar cycle 24 using dynamics of activity near the cycle minimum

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Solar Physics
1Pishkalo, MI
1Astronomical Observatory of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine
Kinemat. fiz. nebesnyh tel (Online) 2013, 29(1):58-67
Start Page: Solar Physics
Language: Russian
Abstract: 

We investigated correlations between dynamics of solar activity (presented by smoothed monthly relative sunspot numbers — the Wolf numbers) near the cycle minimum and the cycle amplitude. The closest correlation is revealed between the cycle amplitude and the sum of activity drop during two years before the minimum and the activity rise during two years after the minimum; the correlation coefficient between these parameters is 0.92. This parameter was used as a precursor to predict the amplitude of solar cycle 24. The cycle 24 is expected to reach its maximal amplitude 85±12 in February 2014. It is found from correlations between mean parameters of solar cycles that the solar cycle duration will be about 11.3 years and the next minimum will come in May 2020.
Keywords: solar cycle, Sun

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