History of sun spot research and forecast of the maximum of solar cycle 25
Heading:
| 1Vasilieva, IE, 2Pishkalo, MI 1Main Astronomical Observatory of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine 2Astronomical Observatory of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine |
| Kinemat. fiz. nebesnyh tel (Online) 2021, 37(4):60-78 |
| https://doi.org/10.15407/kfnt2021.04.060 |
| Start Page: Solar Physics |
| Language: Ukrainian |
Abstract: The paper provides a short historical overview of sunspot observations since their discovery till the present. The review goes beyond collecting all known historical information about the study of sunspots, but hightights the research of five scientists of different epochs over five centuries since the 16th. We deliberately do not zoom in detail on some well-known studies and discoveries. Our attention is focused on the utmost long-term observations of sunspots, which provide information that expands the boundaries of classical Wolf numbers or the number of sunspots groups. Sunspots have been observed since ancient times as they were documented in ancient chronicles. Active observation of sunspots began after the invention of the telescope, probably by Hans Lippershey in the early 17th century. It is documented that Thomas Harriot was the first to observe sunspots with a telescope on December 8, 1610. It is probable that Galileo Galilei and Johann Fabricius observed sunspots almost simultaneously with him in December 1610 with the help of a telescope, independently of each other and of Harriot. The first pubtication about suntpots was istued by Fabricius in June 1611. We dwell on the observations of Christoph Scheiner, Christian Horrebow, Heinrich Schwabe, and Hisako Koyama. Christoph Scheiner described his long-term observations and studies of sunspots from 1611 to 1630 in his book “Rosa Ursina sive Sol”, which became a model for the Sun observers for many years afterwards. Christian Horrebow was the first to speculate on the regut arity of suntpots. And Heinrich Schwabe was the first in 1843 to discover the periodicity (with a period of about 10 years) of the number of groups of sunspots. In 1852 Rudolf Wolf, anatyzmg all available sources, clarified that sotar activky has an 11-year periodicity. He introduced the concept of the relative sunspot number, organized regular observations and publication of their results. Hisako Koyama’s 40-year observations have helped reconcile current sunspot counts with earlier ones. Wolf’s system lasted until the beginning of the XXI century. In July 2015, a new version of the relative sunspot numbers was adopted (Version 2.0). In this paper, we calculated the ratio of “new” and “old” Wolf numbers and propose a table of characteristics of 11-year cycles according to Version 2.0. We also calculate two forecasts of the maximum of solar cycle 25. In the case when the precursor of the maximum is the value of the relative sunspot number in the cycle minimum (correlation coefficient r = 0.557, Р<0.001), the predicted maximum is135.5±33.8.In the second case, when the precursor is the duration of the previous cycle (r = -0.686, Р<0.001), the predicted maximum is 179.4 ± 18.2. Both predictions indicate that solar cycle 25 will be stronger than solar cycle 24 and weaker than solar cycle 23. |
| Keywords: prediction of solar activity, solar activity, solar cycle, Sun |
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