Early forecast of maximum of 25th cycle of Solar activity

Lozitsky, VG, Efimenko, VM
Kinemat. fiz. nebesnyh tel (Online) 2023, 39(1):65-71
Start Page: Solar Physics
Language: Ukrainian

On a basis of data for 24 previous cycles of solar activity, statistical connection was considered between sunspot number on grown phase of solar cycle (from 20 to 29 months of cycle) and its amplitude. It was concluded, that amplitude of 25th cycle should be Wmax(25) ≈ 206 units in case when whole grown phase of cycle will be monotonous and Wmax(25) ≈ 160, if grown phase will non-monotonous, with splitted top similar to 24th cycle. Both cases correspond to a moderate cycle, in good accordance with Gnevyshev-Ohl rule. Taking into account such parameters of current 25th cycle, we can conclude that no evidences are about deep coming minimum of solar activity in secular cycle in middle part of 21st century.

Keywords: maximum, solar cycle, Sun

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