Prediction of maximum of Solar cycle 25: total power at the cycle beginning and in the previous cycle as precursor
Heading:
| 1Pishkalo, MI, Vasiljeva, IE 1Astronomical Observatory of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine |
| Kinemat. fiz. nebesnyh tel (Online) 2023, 39(4):68-89 |
| https://doi.org/10.15407/kfnt2023.04.068 |
| Language: Ukrainian |
Abstract: Solar activity, the most famous manifestation of which is sunspots, varies with a period of about 11 years. Two 11-year cycles form the 22-year magnetic cycle of the Sun. Changes in solar activity cause changes in the interplanetary and near-Earth space, affect the Earth and the human environment. The ability to predict solar activity in advance is important both for some practical tasks of cosmonautics and for a better understanding of the nature of those physical processes at the Sun which are responsible for the solar activity. In the work, the interrelationship of the powers (sum of the monthly sunspot numbers in the cycle) of pairs of «even-numbered to odd-numbered» and «odd-numbered to even-numbered» cycles was investigated, and an attempt was made to forecast the maximum of the current solar cycle 25, which began in December 2019, using the value of the total power of the previous solar cycle 24. It was found that there is a significant correlation between the power and amplitude of the odd-numbered cycle and the power of the previous even-numbered cycle (r = 0.897, p = 0.00043 and r = 0.785, p = 0.00715, respectively; if excluding the pair of cycles 4—5). A slightly smaller correlation is observed between the amplitude of the odd-numbered cycle and the amplitude of the previous even-numbered cycle (r = 0.712, p = 0.0209). Regression equations between the relevant parameters were found. The calculated predicted amplitude of the solar cycle 25 is 155.6 ± 42.4 (according to the power of solar cycle 24) and 172.1 ± 46.5 (according to its maximum) in August 2024 and June 2024, respectively. For solar cycles 12 to 24, the relationship of the same parameters was investigated separately in the N- and S-hemispheres. It was also found that in the solar cycle 25 the southern hemisphere will be somewhat more active than the northern one; the predicted maxima in the N- and S-hemispheres are 86.9 ± 41.1 and 91.7 ± 29.7, respectively. The power of the solar cycle in the first 30 months from its beginning is closely correlated (r = 0.83, р = 5*10–7) both with the amplitude of the next maximum of the cycle and with the duration of the rising phase of the cycle. This makes it possible to obtain, in our opinion, the most probable forecast of the maximum of the solar cycle 25 for today, i. e. 136 ± 36 in February 2025. All predictions obtained in this work indicate that the solar cycle 25 will be higher than the previous solar cycle 24. |
| Keywords: prediction of solar cycle, solar activity, solar cycle, Sun |
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